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Pre-election reporting seemed to focus incessantly on the opinion polls in an apparent attempt to sell the idea that the only party who could win was the Coalition, and that a vote for anyone else was a wasted vote. There is sure to be debate as to whether or not this worked, but the relatively modest Coalition victory suggests it didn't. And the fact that voters have quickly fallen out of love with the Abbott government (assuming they ever climbed to those heights) has been played out in subsequent opinion polls.
What has also been interesting is the infrequency of Newspoll polling. Ignoring the election year, Newspoll polls appeared fortnightly on a fairly consistent basis through 2011 and 2012. Following this years poll, there was a long post election hiatus, followed by two polls a month apart, both showing a decline in support for the Coalition, reported by the Australian sans the feverish headlines. As highlighted on last week's Insiders program, the non-existent honeymoon period and the decline in support that this government has experienced post election was not seen following the two previous changes in government. And while I don't have the data to back it up, I'd suggest that Hawke, Fraser and Whitlam all had a honeymoon period and a lift in support and popularity post election... which means the current trend is the first change of its nature since at least the time of the Second World War.
As stated here before... the Abbott government will set some precedents and break some long-standing conventions... but not in a good way.
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Telling the contrary stories, loudly, day after day – as we did during the 43rd parliament – leaves no room for the real policy debates that people like Tony Shepherd would like addressed. Improving productivity and competitiveness, dealing with the ageing population, catching up on infrastructure, fixing industrial relations and funding the federal and state budgets won’t be done with slogans.
Tony Abbott knows that. And with the shellacking he’s getting in the media it seems journalists are starting to understand that at last.
It is also interesting to look at how the Coalition have reacted to this... attack and internal division.
As comes naturally to the conservatives, if you don't like the message... shoot the messenger. It is interesting to see the concerted attacks on the ABC from the party who fiercely supports and seeks to protect free speech... but only from the likes of Andrew Bolt, Alan Jones and News limited.
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What has stuck me most in recent times was a realisation I came to while watching the excellent interview series between Kerry O'Brien and Paul Keating, titled Keating. You can still catch a few of the episodes on ABC's iView if you're quick.
Keating spoke of the need to both build political capital and spend it. And the purpose of spending it was to drive the kind of changes which were uncomfortable or unpopular, but which you believed were in the best interests of the nation.
Looking at the performance of the Abbott government, it is clear that they have spent a great deal of political capital doing essentially nothing.
As the weeks go by this looks more and more like a one term government.