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We have re-printed an edited version of Mark’s contribution below.
If you wish to see the full article, back issues are available through the magazine’s website.
Graham’s critique of renewable energy can be boiled down to seven statements of simple faith. The following refutations are based on peer reviewed research by others and myself on integrating large scale wind and solar power into electricity grids.
Claim 1 – wind and solar are intermittent and therefore require continuous backup from fossil fuels.
This claim is refuted in ‘The base-load myth’
Claim 2 – wind and solar reduce fuel costs but don’t result in retirements of coal fired power stations
Wind farms can replace coal stations, provided some additional peak-load plant is available, which is operated infrequently. Geographic diversity greatly reduces the need for this additional low-cost, flexible plant.
Concentrated solar thermal (CST) power with low-cost thermal storage will soon be able to replace coal stations too.
Claim 3 – Renewable energy targets completely ignore the costs of stabilising supply with new transmission lines or storage or back-up
Even with 20%-30% of electricity coming from wind, the stabilisation costs amount to only half a cent per kilowatt hour. I don’t think it is necessary to go to the expense of connecting WA to the Eastern states in order to achieve 100% renewable electricity (modelling being prepared at UNSW)
Claim 4 – Fossil fuel generators, or nuclear and gas, are essential for maintaining a reliable electricity supply
Several detailed studies (cited in ‘The base-load myth’) refute this claim.
Claim 5 – Solar power is a very expensive way of reducing CO² emissions
The costs of photovoltaic (PV) power are declining rapidly, to the point that it will likely become competitive with retail electricity before 2020. CST will also be much cheaper by 2020 and will be able to supply 24-hour power. Wind is already less expensive than nuclear.
Claim 6 – The diffuseness of renewable energy is a permanent obstacle to its use
Solar power on a square of side 50km could supply all of Australia’s electricity demand. Wind power is compatible with agricultural land. Much biomass is potentially available from agricultural and plantation forestry residues.
Claim 7 – Renewable energy can only grow slowly, nuclear can grow faster
The opposite is true. Globally wind has been growing at 25%-30% per year for decades and PV at 40%-50% for the past decade. Global nuclear generation has been stagnant since 2005.
It has been interesting to see the effects that the price on Carbon has had on driving a reduction in the carbon intensity of our electricity generation. We are now moving toward more sustainable energy, but there is obviously much further to go.
What are your thoughts on our energy future?